80. Geopolitical Significance of South China Sea: Part I

1.1.Introduction

For a long time now, political thinkers are of the view that we have entered the ‘Asian Century’. This refers to the projected 21st-century dominant role that Asia is expected to play in world politics. The concept gained attention following the rapid economic growth of Asian countries, particularly India and China since the 1990s. It is expected that the continent will soon become the new ‘center of the world’. 

The rise of the Asian Century is related to Asia’s maritime affairs in a big way. History has shown us that the rise and fall of maritime power have determined the rise and fall of civilizations. In Asia too, the acceptance of the term ‘Indo-Pacific’ from the hitherto ‘Asia Pacific’ into the geopolitical discourse can be considered as a turning point in International Relations. Indo-Pacific accounts for 62 percent of the world Gross Domestic Product and 46 percent of the world’s merchandise trade¹. 

Within the context of Indo-Pacific, the South China Sea (SCS) is of major significance, especially when we talk about the triumph of the Asian Century. Part of the Pacific Ocean, SCS is a marginal sea south of China. The area encompasses roughly 3.62 million sq km, and the region is the largest sea body after the five oceans. The South China Sea is home to several reefs, rocks, atolls and small islands namely the Spratly Islands, Woody Island, Taiping Island, Paracel Islands, Pratas Islands, Macclesfield Bank, and Scarborough Shoal among several others. The SCS and its mostly uninhabited islands are subject to competing claims of sovereignty by neighboring nations. The area is contested by 6 littoral states of the region, namely China and Taiwan, Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Brunei.

1.2.Significance of the South China Sea:

Stretching from the Strait of Malacca in the southwest to Taiwan In the north, the SCS carries tremendous strategic importance and is vital for the sustenance of the world economy. According to recent data², around one-third of the world’s shipping passes through the region. The total trade value of this is around $3.4 trillion. It is believed that any disruption in the SCS would precipitate a global economic crisis.

Secondly, the route is extremely important for the world energy trade, around 30% of global maritime crude oil passes through the SCS. This accounts for 15 million barrels per day³! The region is also rich in hydrocarbon resources. Asia is the fastest-growing economy, with an economic growth projection of 5.1% in 2020 by the International Monetary Fund(IMF)⁴. The cause of this growth is believed to be the energy heavy industries. Asia's energy demand⁵ is projected to double to 9 billion mtoe by 2035.  For this reason, energy demand will only grow.  

The SCS region is also very rich in natural reserves. Many of the islands located in the region, especially the Spratly and Paracel Islands, are rich in fisheries. The region has become the ‘hub of maritime confrontation as declining fish stocks have driver fishermen farther into the disputed area to search for supply’. Around 1.5 billion people live in the SCS region who heavily relies on fisheries for foods and jobs⁶. 

Control over this route will, therefore, mean, a control over Asia, and in turn: control over the world economy. However, the Asian Century is engulfed by political troubles and stagnating economies. Geopolitical turbulence in the South China Sea is not a new problem. 


References: 

1.     Navigating the Indo-Pacific Cooperation. [online] Economic Times Blog. Available at: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/blogs/et-commentary/navigating-the-indo-pacific-cooperation/ 

2.     China Power Project. (2019). How much trade transits the South China Sea? | ChinaPower Project. [online] Available at: https://chinapower.csis.org/much-trade-transits-south-china-sea/

3.     Eia.gov. (2019). [online] Available at: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=36952.

4.     IMF. (2019). Asia and Pacific Regional Economic Outlook: Caught in Prolonged Uncertainty. [online] Available at: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/REO/APAC/Issues/2019/10/03/areo1023 

5.   Kumagai, T. (2019). Asia energy demand to double to 9 bil mtoe by 2035 - outlook | S&P Global Platts. [online] Spglobal.com. Available at: https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/041811-asia-energy-demand-to-double-to-9-bil-mtoe-by-2035-outlook 

6.     Xu, B. (2019). South China Sea Tensions. [online] Council on Foreign Relations. Available at: https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/south-china-sea-tensions

Source: South China Morning Post